December 7, 2020

Background: SARS-CoV-2 infection has resulted in a high mortality rate, with the majority of deaths resulting from respiratory failure. As waves of the pandemic continue to overwhelm healthcare systems throughout the world, a pragmatic risk stratification tool that would allow for the early identification of patients with COVID-19 infection who are at the highest risk of death could help guide the management of individual patients as well as resource utilization.  In a systematic review from April 2020, Wynants et al found that prediction models have rapidly entered the literature since the start of the covid-19 pandemic, but that they are of questionable quality and at high risk of bias, and as such are not ready for general use.  A prediction model based on a large cohort with high quality methods would be of great value to the medical community.